The Pricing Assets Market Points (PAMP) Model is a dynamic multivariate projection system grounded in a structural and mechanistic approach. It interprets the historical behavior of the U.S. dollar and recalibrates its trajectory based on current market conditions, using nonlinear dynamics among key financial assets and adapting in real time through supervised learning.
Rather than smoothing out volatility, the model embraces it—treating chaos as an informational asset. It forecasts operational ranges with minimal error margins while honoring the real and dynamic nature of financial markets.
APPLIED
STATISTICAL TEHNIQUES AND GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Explore the U.S dollar behavior according to historical range of operation.
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Analysis of daily logarithmic returns overs 13 years
HISTORICAL SEASONAL FACTOR
Seasonality factor over 13 years
PEARSON CORRELATIONS COEFFICIENTS
Brent | Gold | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CNY
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Bayesian probability: USD versus market indicators and commodities.
RECESSIONS MODELS
Sahm rule & Inverted Yield curve
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Inspired by the work of thinkers like Andrew Smithers, James York, Jay Forrester, and Nassim Taleb, and drawing on principles from econophysics, Germán A.C.G. has spent over a decade analyzing Colombia’s foreign exchange market.
With a background in business administration, a specialization and master’s in finance, and experience consulting for importing companies, he concluded that the exchange market cannot truly be predicted—due to manipulation, flawed models, black swans, and complex structural forces.
Instead of surrendering to uncertainty, he developed a proprietary model to capture the dollar’s core behavior and align it with market movements through multidimensional structures and supervised learning.
DATA DRIVEN
INSIGHT INTO ASSET BEHAVIOR
Most econometrics textbooks assume you’ve learned all the statistics necessary to begin building econometric models, estimating, and testing hypotheses.
At the same time, most work in econometrics is made on the assumption that the researcher has a theoretical model that is true.
In my opinion, as far as I can tell, using econometrics is no guarantee we get at any objective true.
Long time ago, some said, that the human mind is not adapted to intepreted how social system behave and economic profession should be view and define as a system proffesion.
Few years ago, another important economist said, that the model on which economists are based "is not scientific”, and Economists ignore the stock markets and the data we get from them.
Well,,,,
If you want to predit US dollar, you have to abandon what you thought were right and adopt another opinion. You need to break the rules. Remember that no one made the difference by following the rules.
The Pricing Assets Market Points (PAMP) Model is a dynamic multivariate projection framework with a structural and mechanistic approach. It classifies the historical behavior of the U.S. dollar and recalibrates it according to current market conditions through the nonlinear interaction of key assets, adjusting in real time via supervised learning.
The model does not smooth out chaos or conform to volatility—it understands it and leverages it as an opportunity. It predicts the operational range with minimal error margins, while respecting the real and dynamic nature of the market.
It is important to recognize that the future cannot be predicted in complex dynamical systems. Consequently, the long-term behavior of the US dollar is inherently unpredictable. As James Yorke once put it: ‘You see a pattern, the pattern disappears, and a new one emerges.’ Our economic system is, by design, fundamentally chaotic. In such systems, we can only operate in terms of probabilities.
